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Has the SNC-Lavalin/Wilson-Raybould Controversy Impacted Public Opinion?

March 6, 2019

By David Coletto & Bruce Anderson

Over current weeks we’ve been polling Canadian political attitudes repeatedly and really feel we have now an excellent knowledge set to gauge the impression of the controversy so far, based mostly on a total of greater than 8,800 interviews carried out between January 30 and March Four, 2019.

Between January 30 and February 26, we have now three snapshots taken before or after vital moments in the timeline of the controversy. Since February 28, we now have been conducting 300 interviews every day and report a three-day roll-up of the results on this report.

Each snapshot is weighted to match the Canadian inhabitants independently.

Wave 1: Carried out from January 30 to February 5, 2019, and interviewed 2,500 Canadian adults. All interviews have been carried out previous to the Globe and Mail story on about Ms. Wilson-Raybould and SNC-Lavalin.

Wave 2: Carried out from February 8 to 11, 2019 and interviewed 2,500 Canadian adults. All interviews have been carried out prior to Ms. Wilson-Raybould resigning from Cabinet.

Wave 3: Carried out from February 22 to 26, 2019 and interviewed 2,347 Canadian adults. All interviews have been carried out after Mr. Butts resigned as Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister.

Three-Day Rolling survey: Carried out from February 28 to March Four, 2019, with 300 interviews being carried out day by day. Results reported embrace a three-day rolling sample with a total pattern measurement of 900. At occasions on this report, we report on the whole 1,500 interviews carried out between this period. All interviews have been carried out after Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony and earlier than Dr. Philpott’s resignation from cupboard and Mr. Butt’s testimony to the Justice Committee.

Over the course of those snapshots, we asked the similar questions which allow us to match responses and assess the influence of events across this era. Throughout the rolling survey portion, we also asked how intently individuals have been following the results and whether or not they consider the Prime Minister ought to resign due to the controversy.

We also embrace results from our final national survey carried out at the finish of December as a reference point.

Right here’s what we discovered:

VOTING INTENTIONS

The Conservatives and Liberals have been inside two points of one another for many of February. Following Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, Liberal help dropped slightly whereas Conservative help increased. The six-point Conservative lead nationally is the largest Conservative lead over the Liberals we have now registered in our polling since the final federal election.

Once we roll up all the interviews carried out since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, we find the Conservatives lead in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba by a big margin and have opened up a 7-point lead in Ontario. The Liberals lead by 14-points in Quebec and 9-points in Atlantic Canada. In BC, we discover a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals.

APPROVAL OF THE GOVERNMENT

Since December 2018, approval of the federal government is down 8-points with the sharpest drop occurring after Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. Virtually half of Canadians now say they disapprove of the government’s performance – the highest we now have registered since the last election.

IMPRESSIONS OF JUSTIN TRUDEAU

Constructive impressions have declined 11-points since December from 44% to 33%, negatives have risen from 37% to 46%. Views of Mr. Trudeau modified extra rapidly after final week’s testimony by Ms. Wilson-Raybould and have stayed constant over the previous week.

IMPRESSIONS OF ANDREW SCHEER

Impressions of Mr. Scheer have not changed much over the period of this research. In December, 30% had a favourable view while 29% had an unfavourable view. As of March 4, those numbers are principally equivalent: 30% constructive and 26% damaging.

IMPRESSIONS OF JAGMEET SINGH

Constructive impressions of Mr. Singh have moved not moved much over this era staying around 20%. Unfavourable impressions have hovered around 30%. We do see evidence but that his by-election victory on February 25 has changed the public’s impression of the NDP chief.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Once we ask respondents who they would like to be Prime Minister after the next election, our most up-to-date sounding finds 35% preferring Mr. Trudeau, down 10-points since December and 4-points since the Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. 33% choose Mr. Scheer, up 4-points since December and up a marginal 2-points since before Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. 13% would like Mr. Singh or Ms. Might to be Prime Minister whereas 7% would select Mr. Bernier.

ATTENTION BEING PAID TO THE CONTROVERSY

Since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, we’ve got been tracking how intently Canadians have been following information about the controversy. General, we don’t see any change since final week with about 40% saying they are following the story very or pretty intently, about half being aware however not following it a lot at all and about 14% who say they haven’t heard about the story before.

As anticipated, attention being paid to this controversy is intently associated to at least one’s partisanship. Conservative partisans are the almost definitely to be following the story intently followed by Liberal identifiers. Solely 36% and 26% of NDP and non-partisans are following the story intently respectively.

SHOULD PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU RESIGN?

We also ask respondents whether or not they assume the Prime Minister ought to resign because of these events. Since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, about 40% of Canadians are inclined to assume the Prime Minister should resign while about 45 to 48% (over this era) feel he shouldn’t resign. An equal number undoubtedly assume he ought to resign and undoubtedly assume he shouldn’t resign.

Those following the information of the controversy more intently are more likely to assume the Prime Minister ought to resign – though opinion continues to be fairly divided.

Once we examine results throughout social gathering identification, we find that Conservatives are much more more likely to assume the Prime Minister ought to resign than other Canadians. 48% assume he ought to undoubtedly resign whereas another 27% are inclined to assume he ought to. 15% of Conservatives don’t assume he should resign.

In contrast, only 5% of Liberal partisans assume the PM should undoubtedly resign with virtually eight in ten saying they don’t assume he should or undoubtedly shouldn’t resign.

Amongst non-partisans, 32% are inclined to assume he ought to resign, 46% are inclinded to assume he shouldn’t resign and 22% usually are not positive.

UPSHOT

Based on Bruce Anderson: “The 2015 election was a volatile and competitive one, and 10 weeks into 2019, it seems this year’s election might be as dynamic. If experience has taught us anything it is to resist the temptation to predict in March what voters will consider important in October. What we can tell is that a substantial enough number of people have been following the SNC Lavalin question, and the narrative they have been exposed to, has shaken up the political landscape, and created opportunities for the Conservatives and greater risks for the Liberal Party.”

In accordance with David Coletto: “We’ve been monitoring how Canadians are reacting to the events surrounding SNC-Lavalin and Ms. Wilson-Raybould for the previous month. Our knowledge provides us a singular potential to assess the impression of those events on public opinion.

What our knowledge exhibits is the controversy has impacted public attitudes in the direction of the Prime Minister and the Liberal Social gathering. The Liberals now trail the Conservatives by 6-points, the largest Conservative lead in our tracking since the 2015 election. The federal government’s approval score is down 8-points since December and Four-points since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. More individuals now have a unfavourable view of the Prime Minister than a constructive one – the first time since final March that our surveys have discovered this and about as many individuals would like Mr. Trudeau to be the prime minister after the subsequent election as would Mr. Scheer – an enormous shift since the end of last yr.

And this all earlier than Dr. Philpott’s resignation on Monday.

At the similar time, we haven’t seen any noticeable improvement in views in the direction of both Mr. Scheer or Mr. Singh. While vote intention has moved in the Conservative’s favour, Mr. Trudeau still leads Mr. Scheer on who individuals would like as prime minister after the election. And regardless of his by-election win final week, the public’s view of Mr. Singh stays extra damaging than constructive.

However this controversy continues to be primarily about the Prime Minister. Before Dr. Philpott’s resignation, most Canadians didn’t assume the Prime Minister needed to resign over this controversy. Just one in five Canadians felt he should undoubtedly resign. The identical quantity felt he undoubtedly shouldn’t resign. Most are someplace in between.

It’s clear this controversy has harm the Prime Minister’s status and with it the complete government. How individuals react to Dr. Philpott’s resignation and the further testimony to return this week might additional impression these opinions. We’ll continue to trace opinion dynamics.”

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METHODOLOGY

Wave 1: Our survey was carried out online with 2,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from January 30 to February 5, 2019. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of companion panels based mostly on the Lucid change platform. These companions are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the knowledge from a single supply.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the similar measurement is +/- 2.zero%, 19 occasions out of 20. The info have been weighted based on census knowledge to make sure that the pattern matched Canada’s inhabitants in accordance with age, gender, instructional attainment, and area. Totals might not add up to 100 on account of rounding.

Wave 2: Our survey was carried out online with 2,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from January February Eight to 11, 2019. A random pattern of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of associate panels based mostly on the Lucid trade platform. These companions are double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews in the knowledge from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the similar measurement is +/- 2.0%, 19 occasions out of 20. The info have been weighted in line with census knowledge to ensure that the pattern matched Canada’s inhabitants in response to age, gender, instructional attainment, and area. Totals might not add up to 100 as a consequence of rounding.

Wave Three: Our survey was carried out on-line with 2,374 Canadians aged 18 and over from January February 22 to 26, 2019. A random pattern of panelists was invited to finish the survey from a set of associate panels based mostly on the Lucid change platform. These companions are double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews in the knowledge from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the similar measurement is +/- 2.1%, 19 occasions out of 20. The info have been weighted based on census knowledge to make sure that the sample matched Canada’s population in line with age, gender, instructional attainment, and region. Totals might not add up to 100 because of rounding.

3-Day Rolling Survey: Between February 28 and March 4, 2019 we interviewed a random, and new sample of 300 respondents. We roll up the three days into a sample of 900 respondents.

The random pattern of panelists was invited to finish the survey from a set of associate panels based mostly on the Lucid trade platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the knowledge from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the similar measurement is +/- Three.3%, 19 occasions out of 20. Every wave was weighted based on census knowledge to make sure that the sample matched Canada’s population in accordance with age, gender, instructional attainment, and region. Totals might not add up to 100 resulting from rounding.

The mixture knowledge set of the 5 days of rolling surveys (February 28 to March Four) totals 1,500 respondents. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the similar measurement is +/- 2.6%, 19 occasions out of 20.

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